How this works: Select a player to see how their college batted ball profile is predicted to translate to the Cape.
90th percentile EV is the empirically optimal predictor — the college EV percentile most predictive of Cape Hard Hit%, the metric most correlated with Cape wOBA.
Models trained on matched college-to-Cape player seasons (2023–2026) with a minimum of 50 college BBE and 40 Cape BBE.
Predictions generated for all matched players regardless of sample size — players with fewer BBE may have less reliable predictions.
90% prediction intervals shown for all three metrics.
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Expected EV Change (mph)
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Expected Hard Hit% Change
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Expected Barrel Rate Change
Predicted Cape Performance
Select a player to view predictions
Average College → Cape Changes (2023–2026, 40+ Cape / 50+ College BBE)
| Metric | Avg College | Avg Cape | Avg Change |
| Mean EV (mph) | 83.4 | 76.8 | -6.6 mph |
| Hard Hit% | 28.4% | 12.1% | -16.3% |
| Barrel Rate | 4.9% | 1.1% | -3.9% |